Prolonged Absence of Cameroon’s President Paul Biya Sparks Speculation

Concerns over the wellbeing of Cameroon’s 91-year-old President Paul Biya have intensified as the country’s long-serving leader has not been seen in public since early September. His prolonged absence from key diplomatic events, including a recent summit of French-speaking countries, has fuelled speculation about his health and the country’s political stability.

Heightened Uncertainty and Government Response

Rumors surrounding Biya’s condition escalated after he missed the International Organisation of La Francophonie summit in France, following his attendance at the China-Africa forum in Beijing in early September. His absence from the public eye for over a month prompted widespread conjecture about his health, with some reports suggesting he may be recovering in Switzerland or hospitalised in France.

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In response to the mounting speculation, Cameroon’s government spokesperson René Sadi issued a statement categorically denying the rumours, describing them as “pure fantasy.” He assured the public that Biya was “in excellent health” and would soon return to Cameroon. The government confirmed that Biya was currently on a “brief private stay in Europe,” but did not disclose specific details about his whereabouts.

The Political Risks of Biya’s Long Absences

Biya, Africa’s oldest head of state and the world’s longest-serving non-royal national leader, has a history of unexplained absences from public view. Despite frequent trips abroad, particularly to Geneva, he has maintained tight control over Cameroon’s political landscape since coming to power in 1982. The president’s leadership style, characterised by limited public engagement and delegation of routine government affairs to prime ministers, has fostered an atmosphere of speculation.

As Biya’s current seven-year term draws to a close in 2025, his health and future plans have become focal points of political discourse. His absence raises concerns about succession, as Cameroon does not have a clearly defined transition plan. Under the constitution, the president of the senate, currently 89-year-old Marcel Niat Njifenji, would assume the presidency if Biya were unable to fulfill his duties.

Navigating Challenges Amid Calls for Change

Cameroon is grappling with significant internal conflicts, including a violent secessionist war in its English-speaking regions and ongoing Boko Haram insurgency in the north. Biya’s leadership style has often involved a low-profile approach to governance, even during crises, with reforms sometimes arriving slowly. Critics argue that his administration’s delayed response to the grievances of English-speaking communities has exacerbated the conflict.

Rumours of succession planning have gained traction, with speculation about Biya’s son, Franck Biya, potentially taking over. While Franck has not expressed any political ambitions, reports suggest some within the ruling circle may favour a dynastic transition. This possibility is contentious, especially in a region where dissatisfaction with entrenched political elites has fuelled recent coups, as seen in neighbouring Gabon.

The Broader Implications for Cameroon

Biya’s uncertain health status and the lack of a clear succession plan are raising concerns about potential political instability in Cameroon. As the country approaches the 2025 elections, the outcome of this situation will be critical in determining whether Cameroon can navigate a peaceful transition or face challenges similar to other nations in the region that have recently experienced upheavals.